The S&P 500 rose 1.58% on Wednesday 4 November, its best session in the recent run, yet the day's biggest moves ran lower. Democratic wins in the House and Senate on 3 November, plus Gina Hinojosa's win in the Texas governor's race, hit data-centre power and AI hardware. Weekly figures below run from the 28 October close, one day later than in last week's wraps.
Midterm Result Hits Data-Centre Power
Tuesday's rally in power and electrical names reversed. Hinojosa has called for a moratorium on new data-centre approvals in Texas until the Legislature passes protections.
FIX (-15.08%) closed at $1,091.31 on 3.91 times average volume, erasing Tuesday's 7.08% gain and leaving it 37.33% below its 7 October level. Peers Quanta (-11.65%) and EMCOR (-9.64%) fell with it. No company announcement came out, and the Q3 fundamentals stand as reported.
VST (-13.83%) closed at $120.29 after KeyBanc cut it to Sector Weight on policy uncertainty. It set a 52-week low of $117.27 intraday. Vistra has the largest Texas exposure of the group, though the drop looks bigger than its Texas share of the fleet explains. NRG (-13.52%) closed at $83.25, also a 52-week low, with no confirmed cause. CEG fell 6.71%, so the pressure sat in independent power producers while the wider market rose.
AI Hardware Slide Continues
The optical and memory weakness that began with Intel's PC warning ran into the election result. MRVL (-7.08%, -36.50% wk) closed at $159.80, and LITE (-7.85%, -31.42% wk) at $626.75. Because Lumentum holders receive 4.5 Marvell shares each, LITE moves with Marvell's price, which has now fallen well below the level at announcement. The sources disagree on how much of Marvell's decline comes from the deal and how much from the sector.
SNDK (-7.91%, -26.15% wk) closed at $1,037.40 on fears of tighter oversight of AI infrastructure. No company news came out, and Seagate, Dell and Western Digital have fallen 18% to 25% over the week. INTC (-39.00% wk) closed at $58.27. Its CEO bought shares on 2 November, and the stock has not recovered.
Software Sell-Off
DDOG (-14.42%) closed at $188.72 on 3.9 times average volume. Third-quarter revenue rose 35% to $1.20bn and adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat $0.64. The fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $1.19bn to $1.20bn assumes its largest customer, an AI company, cuts usage to its contractual minimum. Last week's wrap flagged that customer as the open question. The shares are 32.22% lower since 28 October, and part of that fall came before the report with no sourced explanation.
The names hit last week stood still. FTNT (+1.00%, -25.67% wk) closed at $129.39 and NOW (-27.52% wk) at $108.81. Each is within a few dollars of Tuesday's close.
Guidance Cuts Punish FIS and Trimble
FIS (-23.67%) closed at $29.76, a 52-week low, on 5.97 times average volume. It cut 2026 guidance and announced its CFO's exit before the open. Raymond James said preliminary 2027 guidance implies near-flat revenue and a fall in adjusted EPS. JPMorgan and William Blair downgraded, and the shares trade on a forward P/E of 4.5.
TRMB (-17.31%) closed at $54.25 after revenue of $966.8m missed an estimate of $972.62m and it cut its annual recurring revenue growth outlook to about 10%. Adjusted EPS of $0.86 matched estimates. No post-report analyst changes have appeared yet.
Earnings Winners and Rebounds
XYZ (+15.30%) closed at $87.63 on 4.69 times average volume after Block raised its outlook, with Cash App gross profit up 27%. A preliminary Justice Department settlement landed in the same filing, so the move cannot be split between the two items. ZBH (+13.49%) closed at $110.15, a 52-week high, after beating on sales and EPS and raising guidance. Orthopaedic peers rose 4% to 9%, and the print eased the worry Stryker's guidance cut raised last week. MOS (+17.37%) closed at $21.62 despite an EPS miss, because management called the fourth quarter the EBITDA trough.
FISV (+6.25%, +29.65% wk) closed at $62.05 as analysts raised targets after Tuesday's 12.46% jump, though four named targets sit at or below the close. GEN (+26.86% wk) closed at $30.89, near its 52-week high of $31.65. CVNA (+8.81%, +31.35% wk) closed at $77.56 with no company catalyst for the day. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% over the same week.
One-offs
TPL (-13.36%) closed at $287.65 as Brent fell 8.7% to $94.62 on bets that a Democratic sweep would speed an end to the Iran conflict. Permian peers fell 2.88% to 7.35%, and no source explains why TPL fell about twice as far. Results came after the close, with revenue up about 35% and shares up about 3% after hours.
MRNA (+13.11%) closed at $258.38 after early mRNA-2808 data showed four confirmed responses in 11 evaluable patients. The shares sit above every target in the brief, and the cause of the afternoon extension is unestablished.
What to watch
- 5 November: Lumentum (LITE) reports fiscal first-quarter results.
- 6 November: Moderna (MRNA) reports before the open, and Vistra (VST) reports, giving management its first chance to address Texas.
- 9 November: NRG Energy (NRG) reports.
- 27 January 2027: ServiceNow (NOW) reports.
- 28 January 2027: Intel (INTC) reports.
- First half of 2028: Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) targeted closing.